Trump-Putin. Not all that Glitters is Gold

This iPhone7, belonging to the Great Men series, has a gold back with a recorded portrait of Trump along with his motto «Make, once again, Big America» and the shield of the United States. Each unit costs about 3,000 euros (197,000 rubles). The Italian-Russian company Caviar-phone.ru achieved notoriety in 2014 with its design of the gold plated smartphone «Vladimir Putin«, of a similar design and whose successful launch had some success in Internet (the company now has diverse versions of That phone). Caviar-phone sources said that buying a phone with Putin’s image was «the best way to express patriotism».

«President Vladimir Putin has become a symbol of the new generation, strong character and a decisive leader,» they said from company. Caviar-phone, who hopes to personally deliver one of their new Trump phones to the new president. One of the first congratulations that Donald Trump received just after being elected president was the Russian President, we do not know if from his golden Iphone, but the fact is that the world is expectant of the character that will take, from January, the US relationship -Russia.

US-Russia relations after the election of Trump.
Both leaders have agreed that Russian-American relations were «absolutely unsatisfactory.» Both countries must now initiate a new dialogue based on «equality, mutual respect and non-interference in the internal affairs of the other.» However, there are elements that make the concord between the two political leaders seems complicated.

Trump’s electoral victory was something that Putin had fervently wished for, but which, like the vast majority of polls, looked unlikely. The nature of a first Trump-Putin meeting will shape international relations. Without knowing yet Trump’s concrete plans for foreign policy, many observers and actors in international relations are wary of the possible rapprochement between the two leaders.

It is not complicated to understand why Putin could wish for Trump’s victory. The list of the Russian leader of the demands of the United States is long; Its geopolitical complaints go back a long time and its relations with Barack Obama and George W Bush have been very cold. Probably the last cordial moment between the two was in 2001, shortly after the 11S attacks when Bush said that he had «felt the soul of Putin.» Shortly after Hillary Clinton arrived at the Secretary of State, everything became blurred.

In 2009, once President Obama took office, the newly appointed Secretary of State initiated what the White House called (with some misunderstanding in the translation of the word) a «reset» in relations with Russia.

There were two key moments of disagreement:

• In the spring of 2011, the US And its allies began lobbying for a military intervention in Libya to prevent Gaddafi’s regime from massacring rebel forces and their civilian supporters. But without the consent, and with the subsequent anger of Russia.

• Later that year, when the highly questioned Russian parliamentary elections provoked a wave of street protests in the country. H. Clinton spoke in support of the demonstrations. «The Russian people, like the people of the whole world, deserve the right to have their voices heard and their votes counted.» This interference in the internal affairs of Russia caused great discomfort to Vladimir Putin.

What Putin wants from Trump.
First, after some formal signs of apparent cordiality, the Kremlin will urge the United States. To abandon the sanctions imposed following the 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula, the sovereign territory of Ukraine, captured by Russian undercover special forces. The sanctions, also maintained by the EU, were a punishment for Putin’s covert invasion of eastern Ukraine, partly carried out by regular troops, partly by volunteers.

Second, Putin will want Trump to recognize the Russian sovereignty of the Crimea – something no major state has done so far. The annexation of parts of territory of another country seems a serious setback, since it is an unprecedented event since 1945. It will undoubtedly cost Trump to impose his thesis on international law.

With respect to Syria, Putin will pretend that the US To abandon his demand for President Bashar al-Assad to step down. Instead, Trump’s cooperation will be sought in an international war against terrorists – understood as such to anyone who opposes the Assad regime.

Finally, there is the question of how the world divides into the new post-liberal era. The Kremlin believes that it has the right to a sphere of influence. This covers the former republics of the Soviet Union and Eastern and Central Europe. Trump has already questioned the role of NATO, anticipating that «US migtht not defend countries that do not contribute to the coffers of the Atlantic Alliance. «

It is not surprising, then, that the Baltic states are nervous, that the EU foreign ministers meet in emergency session after the victory of Trump, and that a bad omen has spread between the border states with Russia. His fear is that what Russia understands by «sphere of influence» means subversion or attack or interference in elections in favor of pro-Kremlin candidates. Much of this is already happening. The Kremlin has recently intensified its military exercises on the borders of the Baltic Republics and other countries of Eastern Europe.

But what does Putin Donald Trump want? The reality is that Moscow has relatively little to offer the US, other than an improvement in the current bitter tone of bilateral relations, or the cancellation of trade sanctions by the Kremlin to the United States. It is said that Putin could hand over the much wanted Edward Snowden to the US as an example of goodwill to improve diplomatic relations. Little more.

Congress may spoil Trump’s plans over Russia.
President-elect Trump’s plan to restore once again US-Russia relations is already finding strong resistance from a Washington political community, which insists on addressing Russia’s behavior vis-a-vis the United States and the West in general. The incipient battle will be the first test of whether Donald Trump can radically reorient US foreign policy against the wishes of many of his own party’s congressmen, such as John McCain or Senator L. Graham who believe that Trump’s plan to cooperate In Syria with Putin’s government is «unacceptable» and publicly demanded the incoming administration to curb the imperialist advances of Vladimir Putin. Before the inauguration of Donald Trump, McCain and Graham will lead a delegation from the US Congress in Ukraine, Georgia and Estonia to reassure these European partners with whom Washington remains committed to serving as a counterbalance to the pressure of the Kremlin.

Economic consequences for Russia and other emerging markets.
Leaving aside geopolitical issues, there is a risk of destabilization of the world economy as a result of the trade wars that Trump intends to begin with calls to suspend or renegotiate trade agreements with its hitherto partners and its focus on reconstruction Of the US economy that would penalize, among others, US companies with plants abroad.

Second, there is a risk that oil prices will fall as a result of the removal of drilling limitations, a change of policy of the American company has long sought. If oil prices fall further as a result, the Russian economy will be seriously affected.

The unpredictability of Trump’s decisions could affect financial markets and lead investors to put their funds into safe havens, reducing their willingness to invest in emerging markets such as Russia. That will put another stumbling block in Russia’s economic development. If, in addition, in December, the US Federal Reserve raises the basic interest rate, that trend of capital flight from emerging markets will accelerate. And if US actions hurt the Chinese economy, sales of Russian commodities will also suffer. Soon we will leave doubts.

Disclosure: The Luxonomist is not responsible for the views expressed in the article. The text has been written freely expressing their own ideas, without receiving any compensation. The author has no business relationship with any of the companies whose shares are listed in this article.